The Russia-Ukraine War and the Changing World Order

The Russia-Ukraine War and the Changing World Order

Image Courtesy: manhhai (flickr)

–Anuradha M. Chenoy

(First published in The Economic and Political Weekly, April 16, 2022, Vol.LVII No. 16, pp.10-13)

The Russian illegal war in Ukraine has accelerated a shift in the world order forcing a renewed balance of power.  Countries and analysts are calculating the implications of re-balancing and positioning for significant changes. Ukraine is ravaged; Russia is the aggressor and will suffer long term consequences, the US led NATO has strengthened and forcing the re-balance, Europe is undergoing a human security crises and remilitarization, China has made a strategic choice,  India like many countries of the Global South faces geostrategic pressure as they calibrate their positions. So what are these shifts,  the implications and consequences? 

A brief on this war

The Russian motives in launching this war on Ukraine include a mix of: aspirations for projecting Russian imperial power status and vision; extend influence and support to Russian ethnic and other dissatisfied minorities in the former Soviet Republics;  re-creating a Russian sphere of influence to counter balance the Western one in Eurasia; opposition to NATO expansion, especially the inclusion of Ukraine;  attempt to destroy the Ukrainian military infrastructure to enforce neutrality before NATO could undermine Russia; the  creation of an Eastern Ukraine buffer for Russian security in the Donbas region with the Russian ethnic majority provinces that had declared themselves independent of Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea, all which give Russia strategic control over the Black Sea. 

Russia is unlikely to achieve all these ambitions. On the contrary this asymmetric  war, like many before will have debilitating long term effects on both Ukraine and Russia as the West places sanctions and isolates Russia. The world but especially the Developing Countries face continuous oil price volatility, grain shortages, supply chain disruptions and economic stagflation. This war has serious consequences internationally marking a shift in the world order that we examine. 

The US Long Term Strategic Plan

The US is key in the planning, the unfolding and the outcome of this war that has given them an opportunity for a renewed grand strategy.  They laid the ground work by promoting continuous hostility to Russia for two decades;  provided material support like advanced weapons, aid, assistance and advice to Ukraine at least since 20141; lent their unmatched soft power and convincing narrative of democracy versus authoritarianism, good versus evil before and during the war and are now ready with the US long term plan for the new phase in international politics.  Russia believed for many years that the Cold War ended with the Soviet collapse and they did try and negotiate with the US. But for the US the Cold War never ended. They continued to see Russia as the threat to a NATO led by the US.

President Biden calls the new phase for global primacy as ‘Strategic Competition’2.  The  strategic crowd in Washington refers to this as  ‘Great Power Competition’ or GPC3.   The earlier geostrategic phase (2001-2021) termed  the ‘war on terror’  is over.  The withdrawal of US troops and NATO’s Resolute Support Mission in Afghanistan in August 2021 appeared shabby, defeatist and hastily conducted but was  as per plan. Biden had already declared in his ‘Interim National Security Strategic Guidance’ document, March, 2021 that global dynamics have shifted and the US needs to reclaim its strategic advantage. The first step towards this was a withdrawal from the ‘forever wars’, of the devastated  Middle East (West Asia) region. The US long confrontation and isolation with Iran however remains their main interest in the region. 

The central focus of GPC-Great Power Competition for the US is China. Any number of documents and speeches since the Obama declaration of ‘rebalance’ and ‘pivot to Asia’ point to this4. The Air-Sea Battle Doctrine (2010) centred China as the focus of a hybrid and military confrontation. The Biden Administration has clubbed China and Russia together as targets. This twinning is deeper than practiced by the Trump administration that appeared contradictory over its Russia policy. The US deep state however has been consistent: “Today, every domain is contested- air, land, sea, space and cyberspace5.” The conclusion- that China is the challenger and Russia is the secondary major threat. 

US Strategists are convinced that a long war in the Ukraine war will weaken Russia irreparably.   Ukraine is being heavily armed by the US and NATO, as General Milley, Chairman Joint Chairman, Joint Chief of Staff testified to the US Congress that this conflict would last for years and that US and NATO would be ‘involved in this for a long time’6.  In this event the US calculates that Russia will be an economic strain on China and the Russia-China strategic alliance gets one sided, therefore beneficial for the US primacy and competition with China. 

The Russian aggression has given the US the opportunity for its already planned strategic competition. The public outrage on the Ukraine war  has subdued the virtual civil war between the Democrats and Republicans forming a  bi-partisan consensus. (Klare, 2022). The US defence budget and military assistance to Ukraine has increased, Russia is increasingly sanctioned, Russian economy is showing signs of stress, Russian citizens are divided as many oppose this war. The US global strategy is unfolding. But it is not unchallenged.

The US as Europe’s Lead

To prepare for Great Power Competition with the Russia China double threat Biden has repeatedly called on allies to both counter the Russian threat and ‘prepare together for long-term strategic competition’ and to push back against the ‘Chinese Government’s economic abuses and coercions that undercut the foundations of the international  economic system’7.  European partners are now open on increasing defence budgets, Germany has increased its defence spending and changed legal provisions to provide arms to a country (Ukraine) in conflict. The Nord Stream Pipeline from Russia has not been commissioned.  France that was miffed because the US cut them out of a deal on nuclear submarines with  the Australia, by signing the US, UK, Australia (AUUKUS) Agreement has fallen in line. 

The Minsk I and II Agreement that were the hope of a negotiated peace led by France and Germany with Ukraine and Russia are not spoken about. States like Poland welcome refurbished bases and increased NATO activity in Central East Europe. The strategic agency of select European powers is at hold. However, most of Europe still does not want to be part of the US grand strategies for primacy. They are aware that European interdependence and development needs a sustainable engagement with Russia and Eurasia as a whole. 

Great Power Competition in the  Asia Pacific

The attention of GPC and NATO is centred in the Asia Pacific around the South China Sea and Taiwan.  Major US allies -Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Republic of Korea, Singapore have placed sanctions on Russia and see China as the major threat. Militarization is stepping up, with Australia’s order of nuclear sub marines from the US and UK and creation of a space force something which they had escaped even during the Cold War period8.  The QUAD partnership of US, Japan, India, Australia has engaged in military exercises in the region. China considers QUAD and AUUKUS “quasi NATO” alliances. India’s strictly neutral position during the Ukraine war has shaken QUAD partners. Other such mini alliances are on the cards.

Deglobalization

International political economy is changing course to keep in step with strategic competition. The West after forty years of globalization calculated that they have lost out to China, India and other emerging countries. To bring back manufacturing they are looking at greater protectionism and barriers as part of a de-globalization process9. Here too China is presented as the main threat, but the emerging economies will be hit as the sanctions on Russia hit global trade, supply and value chains. Trade deals like the Trans Pacific Partnership between the US and Asian countries are presented as encircling an economically unfair China. 

The Senate Strategic Competition Act, 2021, frames China as hostile, as a threat and ‘malign’  to US interests, where negotiations are not possible:   The least developed countries suffer the most, as they recently witnessed vaccine protectionism where Western policy was- when the world suffers a pandemic, put up your barriers (India and South Africa’s attempt for special exemptions on TRIPs, supported by a 100 Developing Countries remains blocked). Within this deglobalization phase, neoliberal  economic and financial practice  continue with rules to coordinate closely with multinational companies and IFIs to give them strategic direction. 

The Chinese Response 

China recognises that they are the primary adversary of the US in the Great Power Competition, the focus on Russia is temporary while strategic coercion against China is constant. China has not named Russia as an aggressor in the Ukraine war, has opposed NATO expansion and sanctions and calls for diplomatic solution while recognising Russia’s ‘legitimate security concerns’. Xi’s conversation with Biden showed the replay of cold hostility11.  If Biden warned China on material support to Russia, Xi in turn warned Biden about ‘playing with fire’ on Taiwan saying, ‘He who bells the tiger will have to take it off ’.12 China is building defences as the US prioritises its military presence in  the Asia Pacific and  creates an international coalition to isolate China and Russia. 

China does not want to be bracketed with Russia and asserts its sovereign position. China call this war ‘the situation’, has supported Russia in the Security Council and UN General Assembly.  The US has  warned them about possible “implications” and “consequences”13.  Chinese  strategic thinkers believe that US attempts to weaken this Sino-Russian  partnership that is described as one with  “no-limits” cannot succeed because Russia gives them strategic depth, supports their energy and food needs and can help them face any US threat14.  Russia and China have since years been putting in place institutions for trade in local currencies like the Rubble – Renminbi trade. The Chinese have chosen sides. Clearly all sides are preparing  for  possibilities and challenges in the Asia Pacific.15  The Chinese are watching and as they say: watch your capabilities and bide your time.

India, Global South

The US is looking to form an international coalition against Russia  that will meld into their long term strategic competition. The US is in no mood to tolerate neutrality, non-alignment or strategic autonomy that characterises the positions taken by India and many developing countries. The attempt to forge a multipolar world by several countries like those in BRICS is under serious threat.  The US vision of a renewed unipolar world demands allegiance. 

India’s stance of neutrality, abstentions during the voting in the Security Council and UN resolutions that condemn the Russian invasion have drawn international attention. India is under extraordinary pressure from the US and its allies. Biden’s inner circle from Secretary Antony Blinken, Victoria Nuland and others to convince India to shift position that Biden has called ‘shaky’. 

India’s position is to balance between Russia which is a historically time tested strategic partner  and the US- a new strategic ally that India is forging ties with given their unresolved tensions with China and Pakistan. India needs both partnerships and there is no other way for them except neutrality.

India’s defence, hydrocarbon and trade relations with Russia cannot be jeopardized when 50% of Indian defence comes from Moscow.  India is leveraging its relations with the US to ensure that these cannot be at the cost of its partnership with Russia or the global South. There is consensus of political forces within India on this position of neutrality. 

Indian strategic thinkers believe they cannot get involved in wars waged by great powers. In an unsettled non normative unstable multi polar world, with  many uncertainties,  India needs to tread the tightrope and focus on domestic growth. India will try and maintain strategic neutrality as part of their goal. Even as they joined the QUAD, they have tried to restrain this grouping to non-targeted military exercises, focus on technology, climate and trade. The Indian position is similar to many countries of the Global South. 

 Countries of the South have broadly four different positions as shown up during voting in the UN General Assembly and  statements around this. 

A few  condemn Russian aggression and  place sanctions (Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Cambodia, Fiji, Kenya). A second larger group condemn the invasion,  hedge this with statements on Russia’s ‘legitimate security concerns’,  oppose sanctions and maintain neutrality (Most of ASEAN, many African and Latin American countries.) The third group of about 40 have adopted  neutrality and strategic silence, abstentions in UN  (South Asia, Brazil, Laos, Mongolia, Vietnam, India, South Africa, several African and Latin American countries). The fourth smaller group remain sympathetic to Russian positions (China, some Central Asian Republics).

Even though developing countries are committed to  safeguarding national sovereignty, favour international law since it protects vulnerable small states, and oppose secessionist movements that threaten to break up states (many developing countries   face secession movements), yet they have chosen neutrality. Reasons include that many  of these countries depend on Russia especially for arms trade. Many source their hydrocarbons, grain, fertiliser and other commodities.

The US position and NATO expansion is viewed as a continuity of the ‘Great game’ replaced by  great power competition. Most countries in the South have little interest in partisanship in  a war between Russia and the US led NATO, where Ukraine is a victim. The discourse from strategists linked to these countries  have argued Russia’s security interests are legitimate; no country can tolerate  targeting by missiles on its border and an expanding  military alliance- NATO. The South has witnessed two decades of Russian appeals, talks, concessions  and believes that that the US could have helped in the resolution of the conflict and the Minsk Accords (2104) They favour the proposal of Ukraine as a neutral zone. They want a quick compromise and return to diplomacy.

Unlike the Central East European countries, developing countries do not see Russia as a threat or as former colonial and racist power.  Russian and Chinese unconditional development aid supports many least developed countries.  Russian assistance during US/NATO interventions, colour revolutions,  regime change and bombing in Iraq,  Lebanon, Libya, Yemen, Afghanistan  and others just in the last twenty years. For example President Obama alone dropped 20,000 bombs16. Madeline Albright’s public statement (1996) that the sanctions that had led to the death of thousands of Iraqi children ‘had been worth it’17 has created impressions in the minds of the Global South.

The South has internalised the contradictions and double standard of moral grounds where normative principles of human rights coincide with geostrategic interests, for example on the Palestine question or the US support to Saudi Arabia in their war on Yemen. Make no mistake, the regimes of the South are no holders of normative values themselves and weigh primarily national and even pure interests to their own regime’s stability. They would also maybe take similar imperial steps as the great powers do, given half a chance. But history has given them a place in this hierarchic unequal world order, and they similarly justify and legitimise their positions with normative examples.

Clearly countries of the South are no paragons of normative virtue. Normative values are held primarily by peace and social movements, many of which are under stress in the South. Democracy for which the US claims to be fighting is being hollowed out internationally and this war can increase that trend. 

The most dire consequences of this war are the possibilities of expanding the  theatre of war beyond the borders of Ukraine. It has been a wise step to make sure that no acts provoke such expansion, even though some parties may be interested in a long war. At the same time, no side has given in for compromises that are essential for a sustainable and dignified resolution. 

 This war threatens the international non-proliferation regime and encourages many countries to enhance nuclear capabilities. The vision of extended influence by Russia, the US’s grand strategy of deadly competition with China and other great powers’ regional imperial designs have the potential for reviving conventional and hybrid warfare. The US for example has no existential or security threat in Europe. But it has an existential threat in climate, economic crises at home. Clearly, the existential threats for all peoples are climate change, destruction of ecology, increasing social inequity between and within nations. This is what needs to be addressed.

Conclusions:

The unjustified aggression of Russia on Ukraine has led to the devastation of an independent country-Ukraine. Russia itself will have long term debilitating consequences as the West cuts them off from many globalised financial systems. The US pans for global primacy have been accelerated. Many countries are calibrating their positions as we have shown. The carbon foot print of this war and the fast paced global militarization are a step back for the goals of a common future for mankind. Militarist alliance like NATO and others need to introspect their exclusive and negative role. There is no alternate to common and collaborative security which is inclusive. Further, the  double standards in implementing human rights and selective wars of aggression on smaller states by great powers have led to a delegitimization of multilateral institutions and a world that is insecure for all. If this is a war for saving democracy and human rights then international bodies like the UN and Security Council should be democratized. Refugees from all countries be treated with respect and norms for a more equitable world system be initiated. 

References

  1. See for examples comments from several important American strategists like Chas Freeman, Russia in Global Affairs, Oct-December 2021: 130 at https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/122-136.pdf ; J. Mearsheimer and others.
  2. Biden, Interim National Security Strategic Guidance, White House, March 2021) at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/NSC-1v2.pdf
  3.  US Congressional Research Service, Report to the Congress on Great Power Competition, December 2021. At: https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/21170190/renewed-great-power-competition-implications-for-defense-issues-for-congress-dec-21-2021.pdf accessed 16 March, 2022)
  4. White House Fact Sheet (2015) “Advancing the Rebalance to Asia and the Pacific”  November 16, Washington, at: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2015/11/16/fact-sheet-advancing-rebalance-asia-and-pacific
  5. 2018 National Defence Strategy, Summary” at: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2015/11/16/fact-sheet-advancing-rebalance-asia-and-pacific
  6. General Mark Milley, Testimony to the US Congress, April 5, 2022, quoted in CBS News at: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-conflict-years-mark-milley-house-armed-services-committee/
  7. J. Biden, Speech, March 2021, Munich, at: https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/biden-urges-european-allies-to-prepare-strategic-competition-with-china-121021901535_1.html
  8. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-21/defence-dutton-flags-future-trump-space-force/100927320
  9. Kornprobast M and John Wallace, (2021) What is deglobalization? Chatham House, October 18, at: https://academic.oup.com/ia/article/97/5/1305/6363969 And see special issue of International Affairs (UK) on Deglobalization, September 2021, No. 27 Volume, 5.
  10.  Strategic Competition Act, 2021, at:    https://thediplomat.com/2021/04/senates-strategic-competition-act-will-make-china-us-relations-worse-not-better/
  11.  Biden-Xi Meeting, March 19, 2022, BBC at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-59301167
  12.  Xi Jinping, quoted in Times of India, 20 March, 2022, at: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/china-snubs-us-says-he-who-tied-bell-to-the-tiger-must-take-it-off/articleshow/90329640.cms
  13. The Guardian, 14 March, 2022,  At: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/13/jake-sullivan-biden-national-security-adviser-china-russia
  14. Hu Xijin, (2022) “Russia is a crucial partner for China in deterring US, Global Times, March 22, at: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202203/1256525.shtml
  15. Putin -Xi Joint declaration in February 4, 2022,  agrees on many issues that include- no foreign intervention in CAS; opposition to NATO expansion. President’s website: http://en.kremlin.ru/supplement/5770
  16. Harriet Agherholm, (2017) Maps show where President Barak Obama dropped his 20,000 bombs, January 17, The Independent, UK, at: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-president-barack-obama-bomb-map-drone-wars-strikes-20000-pakistan-middle-east-afghanistan-a7534851.html )
  17. https://www.newsweek.com/watch-madeleine-albright-saying-iraqi-kids-deaths-worth-it-resurfaces-1691193

Michael Klare https://mondediplo.com/2022/03/04ukraine-us 

Russia, Ukraine, and the New Bipartisanship in Washington and
 
https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/russia-ukraine-bipartisanship/

End Notes

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Opportunism behind Imran Khan’s anti Americanism

Opportunism behind Imran Khan's anti Americanism

–  Farooq Tariq  (AEPF)

Suddenly, Imran Khan has become “Anti American”. Former prime minister of Pakistan and head of his Pakistan Justice Party (PTI), Mr Khan is holding mass rallies after losing the majority in the Pakistan national parliament. In his speeches before he was voted out as prime minister but particularly after a no-confidence in the parliament, he is accusing the USA of hatching a conspiracy to oust him from power. He has started a campaign terming it “real independence”. His supporters are campaigning “no to imported government” as a top trend on Twitter since 3rd April when he lost power.  

 Since 17th August 2018, when elected as prime minister, Imran Khan was friendly with the USA and its financial institutions. However, he was unhappy that Jo Biden never called him by  direct telephone call. Previously, he had a very cordial meeting with President Donald Trump in September 2019. On arriving in Pakistan after meeting President Trump, he declared his meeting was similar to winning the second World Cup for Pakistan. Pakistan won a one-day cricket World Cup in 1992 under his captaincy. He was jubilant when Pakistan got USD 6 billion loan from IMF just after he took power in August 2018, with harsh conditionalities.  

 All that changed once a vote of no confidence against him was tabled at the National Assembly on 8th March 2022. He initially challenged his opponents to bring together 172 votes needed for change of the government at the National Assembly. He did not realize that over 30 of his PTI parliamentarians had defected. These defectors were hiding at a place provided by the Sindh government. Sindh, one of the four province, is not ruled by PTI but by the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) of Benazir Bhutto, who had been assassinated by religious fanatics in December 2007. Now her son Bilalwal Bhutto and her husband Asif Zardari are leading the PPP.  

 Once Mr Khan got wind of defections, he alleged that millions of rupees were paid to buy off the political loyalties of PTI defectors. He accused the United Opposition, which brought together arch rivals the Pakistan Muslim League (PML) and the PPP together, for conspiring and removing him from power through bribes and conspiracies. The  PTI government had become very unpopular because of its bad governess and the unheard of inflation due to the implementations of the IMF-mandated conditionalities. This was the real reason for the defection of PTI parliamentarians who were of the view that the  PTI had lost popularity and they would not win the upcoming elections on the PTI platform. The next general elections are due in 2023.  

In the meantime, the coalition government of Imran Khan also showed cracks in their ranks and several important allies publicly broke with the ruling coalition, resultantly Imran Khan lost the majority in the parliament. 

 In absolute desperation, Imran Khan announced that his PTI would hold a historic sit-in against these political moves and gave a religious touch to his rhetoric. At that juncture, he was using threats to disqualify his parliamentarians who had defected from the PTI.  

 On 27th March, his so-called million march was attended by less than 20,000 in front of the federal parliament where he waved a letter that he claimed was a ‘message of threat’ passed by a foreign power. He claimed that he got this letter on 7th March, a day before tabling of vote of no confidence.  

 The PTI Speaker of the National Assembly refused to hold a vote on the No Confidence motion in violation of the constitution. The United Opposition went to the Supreme Court against this unconstitutional act of the PTI government. The Supreme Court had rescued the PTI government several times prior to this hearing. The top judges were considered to be pro-PTI. After four days of hearing, the Supreme Court gave a verdict against the PTI and ordered the Speaker to call the National Assembly session and hold a vote on 3rd April.  

 The difference this time, was the so-called ‘neutrality’ of the military establishment during the crisis. No parliamentarian received any telephone call by “unknown” persons as was the case in the past. The military establishment which had helped Imran Khan to come to power in 2018, was not happy for several reasons. Imran Khan wanted to replace the sitting army chief, General Bajwa, with his own favourite: General Faiz Hameed. The military establishment was also in trouble because the army was being blamed for the bad governess of PTI government since the military establishment rigged the previous elections to bring Mr Khan to power. The apparent neutrality was a signal to the PTI allies and defectors to help the United Opposition in ousting the Imran Khan government. But Imran Khan kept addressing the nation on television on an almost daily basis before he was removed and in one of his final speeches, he named – apparently as a Freudian slip of tongue – the USA as the conspirator.  

After a high pitch theatrics, a vote of no confidence was held and Imran Khan was voted out. This was only possible through military’s covert intervention.  

Since he lost power Imran Khan rhetoric against the USA has intensified. Imran Khan’s anti- America stand cannot be termed as anti-imperialism. It is an opportunist act to deceive people. It is an act of sheer desperation. It is an act of anti-imperialism of the fools. It is to find an excuse for generating public support. It is an exploitation of anti-imperialist feelings of the people of Pakistan.  

Imran Khan ruled Pakistan for three and half years accepting all the harsh conditionalities of IMF and raised the prices of electricity, gas, petroleum products along all the kitchen items. He never raised the wages according to the level of price hike. He was a committed neo-liberal, staunchly anti-left who tried to do away with the pension system. He introduced a “health card” which allowed all the private hospitals to treat the patients at the public expense. This policy was aimed at pleasing the private hospital mafia. Instead of building new public hospitals and medical colleges, he tried to privatize all areas of the health sector. Most of sugar mill owners were from his party and the sugar price went up from 55 Rupees a kilo to 110 Rupees a kilo in three years.  

In the realm of culture, he tried to ‘Islamize’ every aspect of state and society. Imran Khan, for instance, introduced “single national curriculum” to further introduce religion in education. In at least one province, the Punjab, even PhD scholars in sciences now have to study Quran. The school children are supposed to recite Quran on daily basis. He tried to employee 70,000 religious’ teachers at the school level instead of improving the present education staff.   

Being an anti-American, his effort is to attract the conservative votes. “Death to America” was a popular slogan of the extreme religious fanatics including the Taliban and al-Qaida. There is a great difference between “Anti Americanism and Anti-imperialism”.  

We as the left, are anti-imperialists and not Anti-Americans. Anti-Imperialism means opposing colonialism, imperial hegemony, and defending the right of self-determination. Progressive anti-imperialism means opposing all imperialist states, not siding with some of them against the other. Imran Khan says that because he went to Russia and supported President Putin during the Ukraine war, hence Americans wanted him out of power. For him, it is ok to side with Russia, a thoroughly imperialist state as opposed to the USA. To quote Farooq Sulehria, a left wing activist,  

 “Anti-imperialism is freedom, for all oppressed, from all oppression. In contrast, an Osama bin Laden, or Ayatollah Khomeini for that matter, offers an anti-imperialism that does not tolerate these values. Theirs is an anti-imperialism that chokes minorities and strangles small nationalities. Anti-imperialism represents liberation. One cannot be a liberator and an oppressor at the same time. The anti-imperialism that upholds Osama as its poster boy does not solve this contradiction. We have seen this anti-imperialism in action in Pakistan’s neighbourhood, exemplified by Iran, or Afghanistan under the Taliban where it was reduced to burqa and massacre of minorities”.  

Imran Khan’s “anti-imperialism of an opportunist” is the latest variety on display. His “anti-imperialism” is based on repression of women, religious minorities, trade unions, peasant organizations and all the political parties. He termed all opponents as traitors.  

 Imran Khan termed Osama Bin Laden as “martyr” in August 2020, while he was prime minister.  His ministers termed this as slip of tongue. But on 13th April, 2022, while Imran Khan was speaking at mass rally in Peshawar, one of his charges against the US was that they killed Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan.  

We in progressive movements have never sided with religious fanatics when they were fighting NATO or American forces in Afghanistan as they were not anti-imperialists. Imran Khan is a softer version of extreme religious fanatics. Being “anti-America” implies more votes from the extreme right. This is sheer opportunism and not anti-imperialism. Internationally, an impression is being given that Imran Khan has been overthrown because he was an anti-America. Far from it, this was an afterthought to build a political narrative that could help find some support among the ordinary people. We must not be fooled by Imran Khan empty anti-imperialist demagogy.  

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Webinar: War In Ukraine – Responses and Implications for Asia and the Pacific

Webinar: War In Ukraine - Responses and Implications for Asia and the Pacific

While calling for peace in Ukraine, this webinar focuses on the responses and implications in the Asia Pacific. It looks at how states, civil society and peace movements of Asia Pacific have reacted to this war. We will strategise on what role peace movements can play for sustainable and just peace.

Watch the Webinar

Co-organizers:
– Asia Europe Peoples Forum
– International Peace Bureau
– Independent & Peaceful Australia
– Campaign for Peace, Disarmament and Common Security

Speakers:
– Reiner Braun, International Peace Bureau (Germany)
– Anu Chenoy, AEPF Peace and Security cluster (India)
– Dr Sue Wareham, President of Medical Association for the Prevention of War (Australia)
– Lau Kin Chi, Global University for Sustainability (Hong Kong)
– Joseph Gerson, Campaign for Peace, Disarmament & Common Security (USA)

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Webinar: Peace Movements’ Perspectives on the AUKUS Military Pact

Webinar: Peace Movements’ Perspectives on the AUKUS Military Pact

International peace movements’ representatives analyse the deep and long term impacts of the Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) military partnership. They deconstruct the geostrategic, political and economic ramifications and the arms and nuclear race this pact escalates. They show how this partnership endangers the Asia Pacific Region and goes against the interests of people of this region.

Watch the Webinar:

Co-Organizers:

  • Asia Europe Peoples Forum
  • International Peace Bureau
  • Independent and Peaceful Australia Network
  • Campaign for Peace Disarmament and Common Security
  • Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament UK
  • Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament & Peace India
  • Australian Anti Bases Campaign Coalition
  • Committee for a Sane U.S.~China Policy
  • Laban ng Masa
  • US Peace Action

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Peace and Common Security Advocates from Around the World Oppose QUAD (Japan, India, US, Australia), & AUKUS (Australia, UK, US) Militarism & Urge Common Security Collaborations to Address Existential Nuclear, Climate & Pandemic Threats

Peace and Common Security Advocates from Around the World Oppose QUAD (Japan, India, US, Australia), & AUKUS (Australia, UK, US) Militarism & Urge Common Security Collaborations to Address Existential Nuclear, Climate & Pandemic Threats

Meeting on the eve of the QUAD alliance summit, peace, justice and common security advocates from the QUAD and AUKUS member countries, and Australia, Philippines, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, India, Britain, Germany, and the U.S. met to analyze and build opposition to the dangerous and increased militarism of the QUAD and AUKUS alliances.

The incipient coalition decries the QUAD and AUKUS alliances which dangerously intensify geostrategic military tensions with China. In addition to increasing the dangers that accidents or miscalculations to trigger escalation to catastrophic wars, this increased military competition seriously undermines the possibility of U.S.-Chinese and broader international cooperation to reverse the existential threats of nuclear weapons, the climate emergency, and pandemics. The strategic competition between the great powers includes the danger of a great power war which will destroy the planet.

Opposing the recently announced U.S.-Australian-British alliance, Australian peace organizations are demanding that Australia not become a staging point for the U.S. military, that Australian sovereignty not be abrogated to the U.S. and their government must not encourage the nuclear proliferation and risk environmental catastrophe inherent in the agreement to purchase submarines powered by highly enriched uranium.

President Biden has spoken of an inflection point. Negotiation and announcement of the AUKUS alliance indeed marks a dangerous turning point in geostrategic situation. Among them:

  • Instead of increasing stability and security, the QUAD and AUKUS alliances fuel dangerously spiraling cold war-like arms races that must be reversed with common security diplomacy.
  • The transfer of highly enriched uranium and related technologies to Australia, violates the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, and encourages nuclear weapons proliferation. It provides Australia with resources needed to become a nuclear power, and significant political and military figures in India, South Korea and Japan ask why they have been denied these capabilities.
  • Announcement of the AUKUS alliance has disastrous global strategic ramifications. Coming on the heels of the precipitous NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Biden Administration has again acted without consulting its NATO allies. This fuels calls from European and E.U. leaders to create an independent European military superpower. The new military alliance strengthens worldwide the arms race
  • The AUKUS alliance increases pressure on ASEAN and other nations to choose between sides in a way that compromises their independence.

Forty years ago, the adoption of common security diplomacy played major roles in the negotiation of the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty and the end of the Cold War. The new international peace coalition is committed to building international pressure for Indo-Pacific demilitarization and common security diplomacy to address and reverse the existential threats posed by nuclear weapons, the climate emergency, and pandemics.

No to military alliances and preparation for catastrophic wars. Yes to peace, disarmament, justice, and the climate.

(Signatories as of 0400H Manila time of Sept.25, 2021)

International Peace Bureau
Asia Europe Peoples Forum – Peace and Security cluster
Independent and Peaceful Australia Network
Australian Anti Bases Campaign Coalition
Campaign for Peace, Disarmament and Common Security
Global Network Against Weapons & Nuclear Power in Space
Guahan Coalition for Peace and Justice (Guam)
Le Mouvement de la Paix (France)
Veterans For Peace Chapter 113 Hawaii
Peace Women Partners, Philippines
Action for Sovereign Philippines
I Hagan Famalao’an Guahan, Inc. (Guam)
KILUSAN (Movement for National Democracy) Philippines
KAISAKA (Unity of Women for Liberation) Philippines
Maui Peace Action (Hawaii)
Bukluran ng Manggagawang Pilipino (Solidarity of Filipino Workers/BMP) Philippines
Committee for a Sane U.S.-China Policy (US)
Philippine Women’s Network for Peace and Security
Hawaiʻi Peace and Justice
ʻOhana Koa / Nuclear Free and Independent Pacific
Blue Banner Mongolia
Initiatives for International Dialogue
ALAB Katipunan (Philippines)
Japan Asia Africa Latin America (Japan)
MapaladKa Peace Movement (Philippines)
Communist Party of Australia
Malu ‘Aina Center For Non-violent Education & Action
Dap-ayan ti Babba-I (North Luzon, Philippines)
YouWin (Young Women’s Initiatives)
Kauai Women’s Caucus (Hawai’i)
‘Those listed above have signed in a personal capacity only and the organisations associated with them are for identification purposes.”
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Webinar – Afghanistan: Civil Society Perspectives

Webinar - Afghanistan: Civil Society Perspectives

AEPF and TNI organised a Webinar with a number of international experts to discuss a civil society approach to the crisis in Afghanistan.

Civil society internationally needs to extend solidarity with the Afghan people who have been betrayed by military interventions by the US and other powers. The takeover by the Taliban and imposition of religious extremisms further oppresses Afghan women and society. Experts talk of the various developments in Afghanistan in this webinar.

Watch the Webinar: 

Webinar Summary: 

Focus on Afghanistan: Civil Society Perspectives.  – A Brief Report by Kris Vanslambrouk

Afghanistan has been in international spotlight in recent weeks. Many experts, witnesses and journalists were able to share their analyses. However, the views of civil society activists barely got space in the media. The Asia Europe People’s Forum and the Transnational Institute (TNI) filled this gap with a webinar on August 30th. A number of strong statements and recommendations were formulated under the skilful  moderation of Gie Goris, who has long standing expertise on Afghanistan and far beyond.

Sahar Saba of RAWA (Revolutionary Association of Women of Afghanistan) called not to abandon the Afghan people in the first place and pressed the international community to make more efforts to protect human rights activists: “There is more protest against the Taliban then expected, especially by women. It remains to be seen how strongly this will resonate and whether the Taliban will take a more moderate stance.”

Afrasaiab Khattak (former chairman of the Pakistan Human Rights Commission) emphasises that ‘Afghanistan has been highly urbanised over the past 20 years and new universities and institutions established. The Taliban will have to adjust, the population has changed. Pakistan’s positions will play an important role, many civil society organisations are involved in solidarity actions with Afghan activists, such as providing a safe shelter in our country.’

Achin Vanaik (writer, activist and retired professor at Delhi University) is a strong advocate of open borders and against international isolation. “We must assist the population with food aid and medical assistance, but at the same time we must be open to a debate about conditional cooperation with the Taliban, and maintain a certain military pressure. However, a new intervention is out of the question.”

Anuradha Chenoy (Professor -retired, School of International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University) reminds us that civil society organisations had predicted the current scenario: “We have always strongly condemned military intervention.” She also questioned the hypocrisy of the international community and their demand to install an “inclusive government”: “As if Russia, China, India and even the US have inclusive governments.”

Khury Petersen-Smith (Institute of Policy Studies, Washington) emphasises that the refugee crisis, once again, presses the international community to face the facts: “It is high time to rethink the concept and status of refugees. Imagine what can be done with the billions of dollars left unspent by the US withdrawal. There must be creative ways to support Afghan civil society by working with the diaspora and progressive forces within the country itself. It’s our duty to give people in danger a safe place, the US has done so much damage in this country, we have to make up for this somehow

Speakers:

1. Khury Petersen-Smith is a Fellow of Institute for  Policy Studies, Washington and researches U.S. empire, borders, and migration.

2. Achin Vanaik Fellow at TNI, is a writer, social activist and retired Professor, University of Delhi.

3. Sahar Saba, Afghan women’s rights activist and former spokesperson for Revolutionary Afghan Women’s Association.

4. Afrasaiab Khattak, former Senator and former Chairperson Pakistan Human Rights Commission.

5. Anuradha Chenoy Former Dean and Retired Professor, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University.

 Moderators: Gie Goris- Belgian Journalist, author, who has covered Afghanistan for more than two decades.

Organized by: Asia Europe Peoples Forum (AEPF) & Transnational Institute (TNI)

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Peace and Security in Asia and Europe: Situation and What Needs to be Done

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Objectives: 

  • To analyze the different perspectives to the peace and security situation in Asia and Europe over the last two years.
  • To show how the international security situation is linked to national developments of major states as well as to human security issues, especially global health, economic insecurities and climate change.
  • To indicate the urgent steps needed to address these issues collectively.

Speakers:

  • Noam Chomsky: Linguist, philosopher, historian and Activist. (USA)
  • Dr. Walden Bello: Chairperson, Laban ng Masa (Philippines)
  • Prof. Lau Kin Chi: Lingnam University (Hong Kong)
  • Dr. Nguyen Thi Bich Ngoc: Research Fellow, IFPSS (Vietnam)
  • Dr. Tarja Cronberg: Chairperson, Finnish Peace Union (Finland)
  • Helmut Scholz: MEP (Germany)
  • Anuradha Chenoy: Retired Professor & Former Dean – SIS (JNU) (India)

Moderators: Lisa Clark (Italy) and Dong Huy Cuong (Vietnam)

Resources:
Presentation: Global Hotspot – The Asia Pacific by Walden Bello
Security in Asia Pacific (2018 – 2021): Issues and Recommendations by Nguyen Bich Ngoc 

Organisers: AEPF Cluster on Peace & Security

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WEBINAR: Abolish Nuclear Weapons: Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) and People’s Campaigns

WEBINAR: Abolish Nuclear Weapons: Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) and People’s Campaigns

Watch the Webinar: 

There are still about 13400 nuclear weapons on earth, representing existential threat to humanity. Be it intentional, by accident or as a product of miscalculation, any nuclear explosion would cause catastrophic humanitarian consequences beyond borders.

The abolition of nuclear weapons is essential for ensuring peace and security in Asia and Europe. Only their total elimination can bring security.

Despite the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, humanity made a great achievement of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) entering into force in January 22, 2021, rendering nuclear weapons illegal and creating a momentum for advancing towards a world without nuclear weapons.

Taking this momentum and being backed by the growing people’s voices calling for more human security and more investment on health, social security and welfare, during this webinar we will learn about the TPNW itself, the significance of its entry into force and discuss what campaigns/actions we should take as a next step to achieve a world without nuclear weapons and ensure peace and security in Asia and Europe.

Speakers:

1) Mr. Thomas Hajnoczi, (Ambassador to the UN, Austria)
2) Ms. Yayoi Tsuchida, Japan Council against A and H Bombs (Gensuikyo), Japan
3)Ms. Jinyoung Kim (South Korea)
4)Mr. Achin Vanaik, (CNDP, India)
5)Mr. Ludo De Brabander (Belgium)
6)Ms. Lisa Clark (Italy)

Moderators: Corazon Fabros and Dong Huy Cuong

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AEPF STATEMENT: RESTORE DEMOCRACY IN MYANMAR. STOP THE BRUTAL REPRESSION OF PEOPLE!

AEPF STATEMENT: RESTORE DEMOCRACY IN MYANMAR. STOP THE BRUTAL REPRESSION OF PEOPLE!

Protesters lie on the ground after police opened fire to disperse an anti-coup protest in Mandalay, Myanmar, March 3, 2021. Among them, Angel, 19, bottom-left, also known as Kyal Sin, took cover before she was shot in the head. REUTERS/Stringer TPX IMAGES OF THE DAYThe AEPF expresses solidarity with the people of Myanmar who are bravely resisting the military coup that reversed the fragile democratic process that was unfolding in Myanmar.

The world is witnessing a brutal crackdown where all kinds of force and intimidation are being used on the nonviolent, civil mass resistance that seeks to restore democratic forces, release from incarceration elected representatives and civil society leaders, and restore civilian rule and processes. The people of Myanmar want an end to the emergency and return to an atmosphere of freedom, peace and genuine stability.

After decades of military rule characterized by brutal atrocities and human rights abuse, especially against ethnic nationalities, the people of Myanmar were beginning to emerge from a climate of fear and intimidation to one where they could build democratic institutions and move towards a federal state. By seizing power forcefully on February 1 2021, the Myanmar military annulled the November 2020 elections just as the new parliament was to convene. Since then, the military regime has been using battle tactics to control opposition to the coup from a massive civil disobedience movement which includes many civil servants and workers on strike.

Many peaceful protestors are being killed every day.

Years of authoritarian control and international sanctions had thwarted economic and social developments in Myanmar that woefully lags behind its South East and South Asian neighbors key social indicators. The people of Myanmar have been deeply impacted by the militarization of daily life, lack of freedoms and poor public infrastructure for essential services.

On March 10, the United Nations Security Council unanimously condemned the violence against peaceful protestors, and called for an immediate reversal of the military coup and return to civilian power. On March 11, UN Special Rapporteur on the Situation of Human Rights in Myanmar, Thomas H. Andrews, stated in the UN Human Rights Council that the numbers of murders, arbitrary detentions increases every day. Freedoms of association, assembly and expression are destroyed. Since the coup, thousands of people from ethnic minorities have been attacked and displaced. The level of abuse could qualify as genocide. The UNHRC called for an emergency Coalition for the People of Myanmar that would propose concrete actions. Andrews statement outlined five options that could be taken immediately:

  1. Stop the flow of funds to the junta, including by imposing targeted sanctions on the Junta’s business enterprises and on Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprises, the single largest source of revenue to the State of Myanmar;
  2. Impose an international arms embargo;
  3. Ensure accountability for the crimes, through national courts using universal jurisdiction if the Security Council is unwilling to refer the matter to the International Criminal Court;
  4. Work directly with local civil society and aid organizations to provide humanitarian assistance whenever possible;
  5. Deny recognition of the military junta as the legitimate government representing the people of Myanmar.

The AEPF stands in solidarity with the people’s non-violent resistance and calls for all measures to be taken to urgently end the coup, restore civilian processes in Myanmar, and support the demands of the people of Myanmar for participatory democratic transition and a federal state.

Signed,
Asia Europe People’s Forum

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