June 1, 2018 | Kamal Mitra Chenoy

AEPF, Vietnam Peace and Development Foundation
Vietnam
14-16 April, 2018

The peace that seemed to have come to the fore after the end of the Vietnam War in 1975, has been unexpectedly difficult. Besides the hundreds of intra and inter-state conflicts, the most dangerous conflict currently is in the West Asia region, with ramifications for all of Asia, Europe and globally.

Currently, there is a major conflict on in Syria, in which Turkey, the Free Syrian Army FSA), Al Nusra now called Al Shams, are involved in a bitter conflict in which the Kurdish formations Kurdish Peoples Protection Units (YPG) and Women’s Protection Force (YPJ) are fighting a grim battle versus the Turkish alliance. The US, under President Trump continues to make attempts at regime change in Syria. In response to an alleged chemical weapon attack by President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, the US and its allies France and UK targeted Damascus’s chemical weapon facilities with over a hundred cruise missiles. This further militarises West Asia, firms up military intervention as a model for regime change and is a step against conflict resolution through negotiated and political agreemnts.

This conflict is in the classic mode of earlier conflicts where military interventionism and great power geo-politics as opposed to people’s lives, peace and security matter. It involves (i) capturing resources like oil (by Turkey) as well as olive oil (from northern Syria where Kurds control ) (ii) territorial expansionism (by Turkey) (iii) Regional great power aspirations (Iran and Saudi Arabia) (iv) Great power hegemony and intervention (USA, Russia), (v) Arms sales and weaponry (EU to Turkey); (vi) shifting geo-strategic moves (Russia, USA, Israel’s relations with Turkey) (vii) Attempts at regime change (of Syria’s Assad) (viii) Attempts to retain military and authoritarian control by a singular elite (by Assad) (ix)Rise and shifting locations of lethal terrorist groups (ISIS into Al Nusra and Al Shams) (x) Invisibilization and oppression of a national liberation struggle(Kurds) (xi) Humanitarian crises and genocide (Kurds and sections of Syrian people) (xii) Possibility of military intervention by using doctrine of Responsibility to Protect (xiii) Resulting in exacerbating the civil war, increasing anarchy, fragmentation of the Syrian State (like Iraq, Libya); creating another ‘failed state’. (xiv) Keeping West Asia in a continuous state of crises. (Rising militarisation and use of chemical weapons) (xv) Creation of humanitarian crises, displaced and forced migration, effects of genocide.

Background

It is well known that Recip Erdogan was involved in buying smuggled oil from the ISIS which was transferred via large convoys to be sold at a profit. BMZ –the huge shipping company involved is still headed by Erdogan’s son Bilal. (Philips, 2015) It has also been established that Turkey has allowed free travel of militant groups linked with Al Qaeda through Turkey to cross over to Syria since several years, with the aim of regime change in Syria. (Mahalingam, 2018) There is hostility by the Turks against the Kurds, who have been struggling for autonomy and have waged a national liberation struggle for decades. Erdogan claims that the Kurdish workers Party PKK is trying to destabilise Turkey. The PKK’s leader Abdullah Ocalan has been in Turkish jails for years. A party the HDP that was sympathetic to Kurds and had some Kurdish membership, was bombed in Turkey and 50 people including Kurds were killed. The Kurds claim that this was an attack initiated by Erdogan.

The real problem started when ISIS was defeated in its strongholds in Raqqa and Fallujah. Kurdish forces called the YPG were active in the defeat of the ISIS. But instead of the defeat of ISIS leading to more peace and possibilities of resolving differences, the reverse happened. The USA wants to remove Bashir al Assad from the leadership of Syria and possibly to intervene in the re-making of a Syria with boundaries favourable for their own and their allies’ interests. Russia supported status quo with Assad at the helm.

Around that time several things happened in quick succession. There was an alleged attack by a large group of Turks who were followers of Gulen, who is based in the US supported by hundreds of exiled Turks and a significant number of soldiers who entered Turkey. This intrusion legitimised Erdogan’s urge to concentrate more power in his own person. In the first few months more than 60,000 people were arrested. Arrests continue of liberal academics, journalists and various strata for working people.

In this situation Erdogan believes that in a seemingly stable Turkey, he could invade Northern Syria and wipe out the Kurdish militia who had been armed by the US to fight the ISIS in Raqqa and Fallujah, under the pretext that they were loyal to the PKK and allied groups hostile to Turkey. Turkey launched attacks on the Kurdish areas of northern Syria since January 2018.

The situation is still confused and delicate. President Vladimir Putin has stated that Syria’s borders must remain intact and inviolable. The US are also worried about the situation as they do not want a conflagration there. Many observers and journalists feel that Erdogan is trying to change the boundaries in that part of Asia. However, the Iranians who are a major power are watching the situation carefully. Their allies the Hezbollah who some years ago had repulsed the Israeli army that sought to capture large swathes of Lebanese territory were given a rude shock by the coalition of Lebanese forces. Including the Christian Maronite forces, the Druze, the Shia and Sunni forces apart from Hezbollah and a small but committed unit of the Lebanese Communist Party that also formed the pro-Palestine front . Clearly, no peace in the West Asian region is possible without Iran on the negotiating table.

The so called Free Syrian Army who were initially armed by the Americans managed to get arms also from the fleeing and disrupted ISIS. But Al Nusra/ Al Shams remain a potent ally of the FSA. The arms meant for the FSA went in large measure to Al Nusra. The defence forces in Afrin are the Peoples Protection Units (YPG) and Women’s Protection Units (YPJ). In later stages of the fighting against ISIS the Kurds were armed by the Americans particularly to help in the fighting in Raqqa and Fallujah.

So it is clear that this area continues to be volatile despite the defeat of ISIS. There are major powers apart from the US like Russia, Iran who are totally against the disintegration of Syria. Turkey which tried to build an alliance with Israel was soon disappointed and the alliance broke.

From all journalistic and information sources it is quite clear that in the area of the city and outskirts of Afrin in northern Syria, where the Kurds are a majority is a multi-ethnic province, and where they have had autonomy since 2012, when the Assad regime lost control of the region. The Turks are now systematically attacking. The Kurds state that there is ongoing genocide conditions (Koc, April, 2018). There is a medical and humanitarian emergency.

Experienced observers are warning against a revival of ISIS or a strengthening of Al Shams, which will lead to major conflicts in the confused fighting particularly in Afrin. If Afrin falls, the Syrian state will be even in more difficulty. The Kurds have been fighting fundamentalist-terrorist forces, along with the Syrian troops. But given the numbers of Turkish troops and their virtual allies make things are difficult. The Turks in recent years bought sophisticated German Leopard tanks, whereby the Germans asked for a guarantee from the Turks that these highly modern tanks should not be used in any neighbouring country. That notwithstanding, Turkey has moved a large number of tanks and weaponry into the northern Syrian war zone.

In sum what does this mean. First it was thought that Iraq was a danger to that area of West Asia, particularly when it used mustard gas against the Kurds, where hundreds died. Later Saddam Hussain himself was defeated charged in court and summarily hanged. Then, Hilary Clinton was secretary of state she ordered the removal of Munnawar Gaddafi. Gaddafi was killed but within months Libya collapsed and is currently considered to be controlled in large part by ISIS. Even Iraq, it was only because of Western help and fire power that the ISIS was defeated. One of reasons for ISIS’s hostility to Iraq was its Shia majority. Thus Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi the major leader of the ISIS was an Iraqi Sunni. Therefore the belief that this area could be given adequate relief, armaments and Western support altogether being sufficient to control the situation in this area has turned out to be a pyrrhic hope.

It is clear that Afrin is now in a pincer attack. If the international community does not move to give succour to the Kurdish population and the Syrians in the Afrin area, the situation might get further destabilised. There is no indication that the Russians will watch and stand by, when it is quite possible that this area may again fall into sectarian strife, skirmishes and regional wars.

The lessons from ISIS had not yet been fully understood. In the societies of West Asia and its neighbours there has to be a clear sense of justice and all possible material help to get their countries and troubled areas back into a peace mode. The region has to be looked holistically. For instance there cannot be an attitude that existing trouble spots will be looked at first and other outbursts can be ignored until they become too difficult to handle in the short run. This is what happened in Iraq, in Syria, in Libya and all claims that the regime change would lead to stability and peace have turned out to be palpably false.

This really is a matter that the UN and the Security Council must deal with very strongly before the current firestorm and another which will inevitably follow lead to further regional wars and humanitarian crises. The idea of executing a leader whether it be Saddam Hussain or Gaddafi or anyone else is highly misguided. Apart from the individual leader or dictator, there is always an army and punitive police force and armed gangs based on religion or sub religions or local identities and rivalries. If this way of looking at things had been done two years ago, the situation would not have been so grim. If done five years ago, it would have been relatively easy.

It is high time that the international community buckled down and asked for negotiations from all the warring parties and when necessary UN peacekeeping to snuff out local hotspots. But as history has shown, this cannot be a one time effort. There will have to much more dedication much more aid and whenever necessary intervention to save the people of this region from their terrible existence.

The international peace movement has an important role to play. They must ask for:

• A ceasefire in Afrin and all of Syria, as requested by the UN Security Council.
• Immediate and unconditional withdrawal of Turkey from Syria
• The participation of all parties in this Syrian conflict, including the Kurds to come to the negotiating table.
• A UN led peace process.
• Urgent humanitarian assistance.
• Investigation into war crimes and use of chemical weapons.
• Jihadi groups and states who indulged in war crimes be tried in the International Criminal Courts.

* Kamal Mitra Chenoy is a Professor, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India

References.

Koc, Nilufer, (2018) Co-Chair of the Kurdistan National Congress, Interview with author, April 10, 2018. Also interview with Nilufer Koc at: https://peaceinkurdistancampaign.com/2015/12/10/kurdistan-report-interviews-nilufer-koc-co-chair-of-the-knk/

Mahalingam, Brigadier V. (2018) “Has Trump and the US Allies Done the Right Thing by Attacking Syria?”, Centre for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi, at http://www.claws.in/1899/has-trump-and-the-us-allies-done-the-right-thing-by-attacking-syria-v-mahalingam.html

Philips, David (2016) Turkey-ISIS Oil Trade, Huffington Post at: https://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-l-phillips/research-paper-turkey-isi_b_8808024.html